Poll shows Beebe leading Hutchinson by 21 points

Last updated Monday, August 21, 2006 10:23 PM CDT in News

By Rob Moritz
The Morning News

He could not explain Hutchinson's drop, other than to say Hutchinson's campaign had been "in a vacuum" as far as advertising.

An automated poll by Rasmussen Reports, conducted Aug. 15 and released to the public Monday, showed the race to be within the margin of error -- 45 percent for Beebe to 41 percent for Hutchinson. In previous polls by Rasmussen, Beebe had double-digit leads. However, a July 16 poll by Rasmussen showed Beebe's lead slipping. He had 47 percent to Hutchinson's 40 percent.

A poll released Aug. 7 by KTHV-TV in Little Rock showed Beebe with 48 percent to Hutchinson's 38 percent.

The election is Nov. 7.

Hutchinson said Monday he was surprised by the Opinion Research poll when other recent polls have shown the race to be much tighter.

"Those numbers are inconsistent with the other polling data that is coming out from a variety of sources," he said. "This just illustrates the fact that a candidate should not simply rely upon what the latest polling is, but should continue to talk about the issues that are important."

Upset but good-natured about the results, Hutchinson said Monday he has "a high regard for the Oakleafs, but they're the ones that told me in 1986 their polling numbers had me beating Dale Bumpers." Bumpers, then the incumbent U.S. senator, defeated Hutchinson handily.

Clint Reed, executive director of the Republican Party of Arkansas, was blunter, calling the poll "laughable" and "lacking credibility."

Beebe spokesman Zac Wright said the candidate "remains honored by his Arkansas support, but the only poll that matters is the one on Election Day."

Wright said Beebe "remains focused on bringing the high-tech, high-paying jobs of the 21st century to our state, providing affordable and accessible health care, ensuring our kids get only the best from an Arkansas education and completely phasing out the sales tax on groceries."

Beebe served in the state Senate for 20 years before being elected attorney general in 2002.

Jason Willett, chairman of the Democratic Party of Arkansas, said he was pleased with the poll and that "Mike Beebe continues his positive message for the future of Arkansas and people from across the state are responding to it."

Hutchinson, a Gravette native who served as 3rd District congressman before joining the Bush administration as head of the Drug Enforcement Administration and later as undersecretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, led only in his former Northwest Arkansas district, the poll showed. Hutchinson was the choice of 51 percent of respondents in his home district, while 33 percent favored Beebe.

In the 1st Congressional District, Beebe was favored by 62 percent to Hutchinson's 25 percent. In the 2nd, he polled 58 percent to 22 percent for Hutchinson, and he led in the 4th Congressional District 57 percent to 28 percent, according to the poll.

The Opinion Research poll also tested voters' impressions of both Beebe and Hutchinson.

Hutchinson's name recognition was 84 percent in the poll, compared to 81 percent for Beebe.

Beebe had a higher favorability rating, 61 percent to 44 percent for Hutchinson. The Republican had a much higher unfavorable rating, 33 percent, to 14 percent for Beebe.

Oakleaf said he was surprised at the high negative for Hutchinson, and he noted that, among Republicans, Beebe's negative was only 28 percent, while among Democrats Hutchinson's negative was 47 percent. Likewise among conservatives, Beebe's negative was 19 percent, while among liberals Hutchinson's negative was 52 percent, and among the critical moderate category, Beebe scored 69 percent favorable, 10 unfavorable, compared to Hutchinson's 38 favorable, 43 unfavorable.

Hutchinson also had a large negative among the 65-and-older group, according to the poll, at 42 percent.

Among whites who participated in the poll, 50 percent said they would vote for Beebe and 34 percent for Hutchinson. Among blacks, 76 percent said they would vote for Beebe and 10 percent for Hutchinson.

Among male voters, 49 percent said they'd vote for Beebe and 37 percent for Hutchinson. Of women, 56 percent said they would vote for Beebe and 27 percent for Hutchinson.

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