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UA Recruiting Is Numbers Game

Last updated Monday, January 29, 2007 10:17 PM CST
in Razorback Central

By Dudley Dawson
Special To The Morning News

Since HBO's "The Sopranos" and "Entourage," FX's "The Shield" and ABC's "Lost" don't have any new episodes out right now, my favorite TV show right now that does not have CSI somewhere in the title is the CBS drama "NUMB3RS."

For those of you who haven't not watched it, "NUMB3RS" is about FBI agent Don Epps and his highly intelligent brother Charlie, a college professor who somehow manages to use math to help his brother take down the bad guys.

Be it Markov chains, Bayesian probabilities, areas of optimization or just your basic algorithms, the case always gets solved with a little help from math.

I bring this up simply for two reasons: 1. somebody might get a kick out of a sports writer writing about math in terms other than ERA or batting average; and 2., maybe one of these things will help me understand recruiting math.

You see, NCAA rules dictate college football coaches can only give out 25 scholarships per year -- this year it's next Wednesday.

Yet routinely, these coaches will go above and in some cases way beyond 25 commitments ... hence recruiting math.

Ole Miss coach Ed Orgeron, obviously a master of this new figuring, had 33 commitments last season and has 26 right now.

Sylvester Croom has 31 he calls his own right now at Mississippi State. South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier has racked in 30.

Arkansas coach Houston Nutt already has 25 of his own and has shown before he can take more than the allotted number and make it work.

Perhaps the Riemann Hypothesis would work here. Or would Prime Number Theorem come into play?

Obviously, I don't really know, but when else I am going to be able to toss those kind of terms out?

What I do know is that as deadline approached for this column to be done, Arkansas is sitting on 25 commitments and doesn't appear to be slowing.

In fact, the Fibonacci Sequence and Golden Ratio -- look it up and see if I am joking around or not -- could very well come into play here if Arkansas gets up to as high as 31.

I say 31 because it appears the Razorbacks would still take commitments from a half-dozen difference-makers such as Alabama defensive end Damario Ambrose (6-foot-5, 250 pounds), Hargrave Military Academy offensive lineman Kareem Crowell (6-5, 215), Little Rock Central star Charles Clay (6-4, 212), cornerbacks Terry Carter (5-11, 170) and William Cole (5-10, 170) and Osceola wideout Cam Baker (6-0, 170).

Maybe even Blinn (Texas) Junior College defensive end Alex Cook (6-5, 225) would land here as well, especially if current commit Chavis Williams ends up elsewhere after his recent flirtations with Alabama and Auburn.

Of course odds are Arkansas won't run the table and thus have to figure out how to get 32 or 31 into 25.

Also there are some on that list that will no doubt have to enroll at a junior college or prep school first.

Past that point, a simple Principal Components Analysis would be needed or maybe once the letters-of-intent have actually arrived, a Statistical Textual Analysis can be performed to determined who gets in and who doesn't.

It's all about Pursuit Curves anyway -- aiming ahead and getting there before the other coach does.

One thing is definite. How this football program continues to improve will certainly be all about fluid dynamics -- basically navigating the water no matter what kind of turbulence shall arise.

DUDLEY E. DAWSON IS A STAFF WRITER FOR HAWGS ILLUSTRATED, A STEPHENS MEDIA GROUP PUBLICATION. HIS COLUMN APPEARS EACH TUESDAY. E-MAIL: DEDSPORTS@AOL.COM




Reader Comments (20 comment(s))


The following comments are provided by readers and are the sole responsibility of their authors. The Morning News does not review comments before their publication, nor do we guarantee their accuracy. By publishing a comment here you agree to abide by our comment policy. If you see a comment that violates our policy, please notify the web editor.

Dr. Sigmund Freud, MD wrote on Jan 30, 2007 5:21 AM:

" Dudley, please use developments in quantum gravity in your next Arkansas football article: its the emerging branch of physics in which Heisenberg's quantum mechanics and Einstein's general relativity are at once synthesized and superseded. In quantum gravity, as all see, the space-time manifold ceases to exist as an objective physical reality; geometry becomes relational and contextual; and the foundational conceptual categories of prior science -- among them, existence itself -- become problematized and relativized. These new concepts could easily be applied to Arkansas Spring Football practice or recruiting. Makes sense to me!! "

Dr. Sigmund Freud, MD wrote on Jan 30, 2007 5:53 AM:

" One of my patients suffering in a state of illusions of grandeur about Arkansas football helped me understand quantum physics and quantum gravity's applications to Spring Football. Give my receptionist a call, Dudley, if you have any need to discuss these principles lying on my couch. "

Shiller Repellant wrote on Jan 30, 2007 6:34 AM:

" Principles?.....nah. Character?...nah. Integrity?...nah. Recruiting?.....not the BEST from our own state. Lying?.... Oh, my yes! We have a "five star" head coach for that! Parents beware! At his whim, Houston Nutt has trained a whole segment of our state's population including a large number of media types to villify you for standing up for your son's best interest. Houston Nutt gives used car salesmen a bad name. "

wow, wrote on Jan 30, 2007 7:19 AM:

" When did recruiting become rocket science? "

BluffHawg wrote on Jan 30, 2007 8:28 AM:

" It's a crying shame we put our eggs in Little Mitch and his meddling motha Becks basket and failed to focus on Mallett from Texarkana. "

MOHAWK73 wrote on Jan 30, 2007 9:40 AM:

" WHY DOES EVERY COMMENT SEEM TO END WITH A "MITCH" QUERY? HE'S GONE...GET A LIFE. "

How in the world...... wrote on Jan 30, 2007 9:43 AM:

" does MM alway come up? He's a good kid and with some work, he will make a great QB someday. Regardless, he is gone, let it go. And what in the world is this anti-springdale crap? You sound like some Fayetteville high school kid. Grow up and act your age, you embarrass me. You embarrass yourself. "

Dr. Sigmund Freud wrote on Jan 30, 2007 10:12 AM:

" From comments here I can see that one or two of you have very serious problems of the mind. I can lay you on my psychiatrist couch and let you pour forth all of the troubles in your life -- back to when you were a child and your mother didn't love you.You are not destined to live a life in the sad state of mind that you are in now. I can give you hope in your darkness. You need my professional help immediately! Call for appointment. "

You know who I am! wrote on Jan 30, 2007 10:21 AM:

" Dr. Freud, as I BEEN saying on here-----dog xcess Frank an houston----long-evil---fish fry--lying scoundrels---i can,,,, cxan't thinkkkk I feeel veryy sick my head hurtss xcusse mee------its overrrrr---------- oppss... bull ricochet. Help Doc!!!!!!!! "

Dix wrote on Jan 30, 2007 11:31 AM:

" This so-called Dr. Sigmund is a 'QUACK, a real fake freak. The real Dr. to help you insecure mis-guided souls is of course, Ezekial Zarkiboan. The so called Dr. Sig. came on the site after Dr. Zarkiboan had restored some sort of balance to those who had become incoherent and mentaly depraved. "

Ken wrote on Jan 30, 2007 12:01 PM:

" Just remember that 9 dimensional string theory is obsolete...so any analysis must include the latest theories, not old hat. "

Coharts in wrote on Jan 30, 2007 12:01 PM:

" Dr. Ezekial Zarkiboan is my mentor, and of course he is a wonderful doctor. I refer many patients to him, and likewise he does to me. There are no arguments between us a professionals, as we respect each other highly. I've sent many poor souls to his Zarkiboan Institute knowing he has the tools to help them. Dix, I like you actually, but you may want to schedule a checkup on your oedupuses complex...just a little something I've noted. Signed, Dr. Frued "

Shiller Repellant wrote on Jan 30, 2007 12:09 PM:

" I want to get the newspapers to keep printing his name. "

Dr. Zarkiboan wrote on Jan 30, 2007 3:30 PM:

" Actually, I like and respect you also Dr. Frued. I think that the two of us have both helped the pateints return to a more stable and balanced outlook for the Razorback program. Go Hogs "

Dr.Zarkiboan wrote on Jan 30, 2007 3:45 PM:

" By the way Dr. Frued, I have decided to send Shiller Repellant to you as he has proved very difficult to bring back to reality. You may be able to help this person. I do not have the expert vocabulary that is required. "

Don Fuller wrote on Jan 30, 2007 4:39 PM:

" Dudley, A catchy article. Congratulations on the article being featured on the College Football News website. "

Dr. Sigmund Freud wrote on Jan 30, 2007 8:33 PM:

" I appreciate the courtesy you offer me in sending me "S.R.", Dr. Zarkiboan. It is my professional opinion that he has a "goosed up" hypothalamus of the brain. As you are aware, the hypothalamus is also an important emotional center, controlling the molecules that make you feel exhilarated and angry often with a craving to write your local sports editor. We may have to resort to the injecting him with "X Factor Female Vaccine" to calm his excited male sports hormones. You are a valued cohart, Dr. Zarkiboan. Keep up the good work. "

BluffHawg wrote on Jan 31, 2007 8:43 AM:

" I only made the comment that I'm glad Little Mitchell and his obnoxious Motha are gone and it's ashame we didn't focus our efforts on a true big time quarterback like Mallett. That is a fact and can't be ignored! "

It all comes down to Nutt wrote on Jan 31, 2007 4:24 PM:

" Mustain is gone because of Nutt. Mallet and many other in state top prospects wouldn't come here because of Nutt. Mazlahn is gone because of Nutt. And before long we will be back to 4 and 7 seasons because of Nutt. But hey, all of you are buying into just what puppetmaster broyles and his little nuttboy told the board you would do. Give it time and it will pass over. Hog fans can be blinded by cheerleading and propoganda of how tomorrow is always a brighter day. Nutt is a master at this with the hog nation. Always telling everyone to forget about the past ( except that time he beat texas) and focus on the future. To quote him " we're about to turn the corner". Hogwash. Get rid of him today. He is awful! "

Bunko wrote on Feb 1, 2007 2:25 PM:

" Coach Nutt is doing a great job with the Hogs. I don't care what you negative so-called fans say. No one in charge of the Razorback football program is interested in your dooms day predictions. "


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