Race, Clinton Loyalty Hobble Obama In Arkansas, Poll Says
Last updated Thursday, October 23, 2008 7:50 PM CDT in News
By Doug Thompson
THE MORNING NEWS
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FAYETTEVILLE -- Loyalty to Hillary Clinton, race issues and perceptions about religion leave Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama lagging behind Republican John McCain in Arkansas according to the 10th annual Arkansas Poll.
Support for a state lottery ran 2-to-1. Support fell short for a ban on nonmarried couples adopting or being foster parents, according to the results of the largest-yet Arkansas Poll with the lowest margin of error. The University of Arkansas conducts the poll and released results Thursday. The lottery and the parentage issues are on the Nov. 4 ballot.
Gov. Mike Beebe has the highest approval rating at 74 percent of any state elected official in the history of the poll.
"I think the most glaring omission in this poll is that it polls adults in general and not the likely voter," said Jerry Cox, the director of the Arkansas Family Council. The council opposes Proposed Amendment 3, which would allow the Legislature to establish a lottery to fund scholarships and grants to college students. The council supports Proposed Initiated Act 1, which would prevent anyone who is in a relationship outside of marriage from adopting or being a foster parent.
"I won't say it's inaccurate, because it does poll what people think, but it doesn't poll people who are going to vote," Cox said. The 2004 Arkansas Poll, for instance, had a much lower number for a proposed ban on gay marriage than the measure achieved at the ballot box, he said.
This year's poll showed 65 percent support the lottery amendment with 33 percent opposed and 3 percent either refusing to answer or undecided. The adoption and foster child act showed 38 percent in support and 55 percent opposed with 7 percent remaining undecided or not answering.
Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, chief proponent of the lottery, said he was encouraged by the results but "the only poll that matters is on Nov. 4."
On adoption and foster parenting, "it's the common sense of Arkansans coming through," said Debbie Willhite, the lead consultant to Arkansas Families First, which opposes the act. "Nobody in Arkansas wants to do something harmful to children, but this proposal clearly limits the homes available to Arkansas children in need."
In the presidential race, 54 percent of those polled would vote for Hillary Clinton if she were on the ballot, results said. Instead, Republican nominee John McCain leads Obama 49 percent to 36 percent in the results with 15 percent of Arkansans remaining undecided. Obama, D-Ill., defeated former Arkansas first lady Clinton, D-N.Y., in the Democratic primary.
There was not a similar question regarding former Gov. Mike Huckabee, who was a rival to McCain for the Republican nomination.
State GOP chairman Dennis Milligan said he was not surprised by the margin of McCain's lead. Darinda Sharp, a spokeswoman for the state Democratic Party, predicted the margin between McCain and Obama is much closer because polls under-represent young voters and minorities. Poll data showed 9.2 percent of responders were black compared with 15.7 percent of the state population.
In a series of questions about the presidential race, the poll asked: "And, some people find this next question difficult. We are interested in whether racial issues may impact the presidential race. First, what percentage of people you know would NOT vote for a presidential candidate who was black?" Of those responding, 34.2 percent said they knew someone who would not vote for a black presidential candidate. This compares to a national average in a recent Pew Center poll of 21 percent.
The question on race was phrased indirectly because a blunt question, such as if the respondent would consider voting for a black, had a clear "socially acceptable" answer and responders would be biased to give it, said poll director Janine Parry and colleague Pearl K. Ford. Both are political science professors for the Fulbright College of Arts and Sciences at the university.
Also, 20 percent of those answering the Arkansas Poll about Obama's religion said the candidate was Muslim, which he is not. This compares with 12 percent in national polls.
Last year's Arkansas poll showed a clear preference for a Democrat over a Republican, but political polls this year in Arkansas show McCain consistently leading. The Arkansas Poll, therefore, had questions about Clinton and race to see if those factors are contributing. However, there are probably other factors the poll did not address, Ford said. "For instance, Obama didn't open a campaign headquarters in Arkansas until last month and has never been here" as a presidential candidate, she said.
District-by-district results did not show Northwest Arkansas' 3rd Congressional District as significantly different on any of the ballot measures or the presidential race.
The Morning News' Rob Moritz contributed to this report.
Arkansas Poll
What: 1,628 telephone, including cellular, surveys of adult Arkansas residents
When: Oct. 1 through Oct. 21
Who: Survey Research Center, University of Arkansas
Margin of Error: +/- 2.5 percentage points except for some public officials approval ratings
On the Web: www3.uark.edu/arkpoll
Reader Comments (10 comment(s))
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91151 wrote on Oct 24, 2008 9:50 AM:
BCR wrote on Oct 24, 2008 10:42 AM:
As for the "spreading the wealth, socialistic" idea, just what do you think has been happening since federal taxes have been collected? How do you think programs are NOW paid for? It's the collection of taxes and distribution of those monies through a socialistic system that pays for those freeways, bridges, and other "nice" things we have.
This nation needs change. If you want to take part in it, figure out how to make Congress start listening to us instead of special interest and lobbyist groups. Bottom line, the President doesn't make laws. Congress does. "
bitzi wrote on Oct 24, 2008 11:36 AM:
91151 wrote on Oct 24, 2008 1:49 PM:
baum hog wrote on Oct 24, 2008 4:34 PM:
This whole Obama = Muslim = terrorist thing is simply pathetic.
Just admit you're scared of him because he's not 100% white, vote for McCain and live in ignorance while leaving the rest of us alone. "
TruthWatch wrote on Oct 24, 2008 5:26 PM:
It is his grandmother who is ailing.
Remember, she was the one he threw under his "race bus" when he told of her one instance of racial fear decades ago while defending Rev. Wright's racist rants of the past two decades? "
adabell wrote on Oct 24, 2008 10:46 PM:
How absurd that we are considering a presidential candidate that could not be hired for many positions in the government because he could not get a security clearance because of his associations. "
faithfull wrote on Oct 25, 2008 3:21 AM:
Chigger wrote on Oct 25, 2008 2:08 PM:
Not already registered?
recross1 wrote on Oct 24, 2008 8:30 AM:
Ex-Clinton supporters vote for McCain,at least his plans will work "